Mortgage Services

New home sales took a notable step back in January, reversing much of the prior month’s strength and highlighting the volatility that often defines this data series. The Census Bureau reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000 , down sharply from December’s 712,000 and 11.3% lower than January 2025. For-sale inventory moved slightly higher to 476,000 , up 0.4% from December but still 4.0% below year-ago levels. At the current sales pace, months’ supply jumped to 9.7 months , up from 8.0 months in December and 9.0 months one year ago. The increase reflects the combination of softer demand and relatively steady inventory levels. Prices declined on both a monthly and annual basis. The median sales price fell to $400,500 (-4.5% MoM; -6.8% YoY), while the average price dropped to $499,500 (-5.9% MoM; -3.6% YoY). The pullback suggests a shift in the mix of homes sold, with less upward pressure from higher-priced transactions. Sales (MoM): -17.6% Sales (YoY): -11.3% Inventory (YoY): -4.0% Months’ Supply: 9.7 (up from 8.0 prior month; 9.0 YoY)

NOTE: the rates discussed in this article are from MBA's weekly survey and pertain to last week.  This week's rates have already moved significantly higher according to our daily data. Mortgage application activity fell sharply last week as rising rates weighed on demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of 10.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 13. The decline was driven primarily by refinance activity. The Refinance Index dropped 19% from the previous week, though it remained 69% higher than the same week one year ago. MBA noted that conventional refinance applications saw the steepest pullback, as rates moved notably higher over the past two weeks. Purchase demand proved more resilient. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% from one week earlier and was 12% higher than the same week one year ago. Gains in FHA and VA purchase activity helped offset flat conventional demand, with improving inventory and slower home price growth continuing to support year-over-year strength. According to Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, mortgage rates moved higher alongside Treasury yields, driven in part by elevated oil prices and broader inflation concerns tied to geopolitical developments. The average 30-year conforming mortgage rate rose to its highest level since December 2025.

Builder confidence ticked slightly higher in March according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), though sentiment remains subdued as affordability concerns continue to weigh on the single-family market. The headline index rose one point to 38 , following a small upward revision to February’s reading. While the increase marks a modest improvement, builder sentiment remains well below the breakeven level of 50 that separates positive from negative market conditions. The underlying components all posted gains during the month. The index measuring current sales conditions increased one point to 42 , while the gauge tracking prospective buyer traffic rose three points to 25 . The index measuring future sales expectations climbed two points to 49 , moving closer to the neutral threshold. “Affordability for buyers and builders remains a top concern,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens. He noted that many prospective buyers remain on the sidelines awaiting lower interest rates and greater economic clarity, while builders continue to grapple with elevated land, labor, and construction costs. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz echoed those concerns, pointing to ongoing affordability challenges and uncertainty surrounding global events and energy prices as potential headwinds for the housing market. At the same time, he noted that recent efforts to reduce regulatory burdens on homebuilding could help improve long-term housing supply.