Mortgage Services

Mortgage applications fell sharply last week as higher borrowing costs continued to pressure refinance demand, while purchase activity showed a bit more resilience. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an 8.5% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 22. The decline was driven largely by a steep drop in refinance activity. The Refinance Index fell 18% from the previous week, though refinance demand remained 19% higher than the same period one year ago. Purchase activity held relatively steady despite the rate environment. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index slipped just 0.4% week over week and remained 5% above year-ago levels. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.65% from 6.56%, reaching its highest level since August 2025. MBA’s Joel Kan notes the steady climb in rates over the past five weeks pushed many borrowers out of the refinance market. Additionally, Kan said refinance activity weakened across nearly every category last week, noting that “conventional refinances were down 14 percent, along with an 18 percent decrease for FHA applications and a 34 percent decrease for VA applications.” He added that refinances accounted for just 37.5% of total mortgage activity, “the lowest share since June 2025.” Looking ahead to next week's data, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a rebound given the relatively strong recovery in mortgage rates (now at their lowest daily levels in more than 2 weeks).

Home price appreciation slowed further in March and through the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. While national prices continued to edge higher on a nominal basis, both reports pointed to a housing market struggling to maintain momentum as affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh on demand. FHFA reported that U.S. house prices rose 1.7% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, matching the prior quarter’s annual pace. On a quarterly basis, prices increased 0.5% from Q4 2025, while the agency’s seasonally adjusted monthly index posted a modest 0.1% gain in March from February. Regional FHFA data continued to show a sharply divided housing market. Seven of the nine census divisions posted annual price gains, led by the East North Central division at +4.4% . By contrast, the West South Central division recorded a 0.7% decline . At the state level, Illinois led annual appreciation at 7.3% , while Colorado posted the steepest decline at -2.4% . Metro-level results reflected similar divergence. FHFA said home prices increased in 65 of the 100 largest metropolitan areas over the past year, with Elgin, Illinois posting the strongest appreciation at 10.8% . Meanwhile, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas recorded the largest decline at -6.9% , underscoring ongoing softness across portions of the Sun Belt.

Residential construction activity was mixed again in April, as building permits rebounded while housing starts pulled back modestly from March’s stronger pace. The latest Census Bureau data continues to reflect a construction sector navigating uneven demand and affordability pressures. Privately owned housing starts fell 2.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.465 million , down from March’s revised 1.507 million pace. Despite the monthly decline, starts were still 4.6% higher than April 2025 levels. Single-family starts dropped 9.0% to 930k, while multifamily starts (buildings with five units or more) increased to 529k. On the permitting side, activity recovered after March’s sharp decline. Total building permits rose 5.8% to an annual rate of 1.442 million , though that was still 0.2% below year-ago levels. Single-family permits declined 2.6% to 872k, while multifamily authorizations climbed to 514k. As is often the case with this data series, month-to-month swings can exaggerate the underlying trend. More broadly, residential construction activity has remained relatively stable over the past year, with builders continuing to balance elevated financing costs, affordability challenges, and uneven buyer demand. In fact, if we smooth the data with a simple 3-month moving average, it's easier to see a decent little rebound from the long term lows last Fall. In this light, housing starts are the strongest they've been since early 2024.