Mortgage Services

Mortgage applications declined last week, reversing some of the prior period’s gains as rates climbed to their highest level in a month. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 4.4% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 1. The decline was broad-based, with both purchase and refinance activity moving lower. The Refinance Index fell 5% from the previous week but remained 29% higher than the same week one year ago. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4% week over week and was still 5% above last year’s level. In the bigger picture, purchase apps remain closer to the highest levels of the past few years. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.45% from 6.37%, marking the highest reading in a month and weighing on overall application volume. Higher borrowing costs, driven in part by ongoing geopolitical tensions, continue to limit refinance incentives while creating some hesitation among prospective buyers. MBA’s Joel Kan said, " Mortgage rates last week increased to their highest level in a month... elevated rates and shrinking refinance incentives continued to weigh on activity... The refinance share of applications was the lowest since August 2025. " Kan also noted that while purchase activity softened on a weekly basis, it remains above last year’s pace. The average purchase loan size rose to a record $467,300 , suggesting that higher-priced segments may be driving activity while some entry-level buyers hold back amid affordability pressures.

New home sales moved higher in March and February. Both months were reported on a single day this week as the Census Bureau continues catching up from the government shutdown.  After dropping to 587k in January, sales rose to 635k in February and 682k in March. This represents a solid bounce back into the center of the broadly sideways range that's been intact for the past 2 years.  For-sale inventory edged slightly lower to 481,000 , down 0.4% from February and 4.6% below year-ago levels. At the current sales pace, months’ supply fell to 8.5 months , down from 9.1 months in February and 9.2 months one year ago. The decline reflects a combination of stronger sales and modestly tighter inventory. Prices moved lower on both a monthly and annual basis. The median sales price declined to $387,400 (-5.3% MoM; -6.2% YoY), while the average price slipped to $503,100 (-3.4% MoM; -1.2% YoY). The continued softness in pricing suggests a shift in the mix of homes sold and ongoing pressure on affordability. Sales (MoM): +7.4% Sales (YoY): +3.3% Inventory (YoY): -4.6% Months’ Supply: 8.5 (down from 9.1 prior month; 9.2 YoY)

Residential construction activity moved in opposite directions in March, as housing starts posted a strong rebound while building permits fell sharply from the previous month’s elevated pace. The latest Census Bureau report suggests builders accelerated new projects even as future pipeline activity softened. Privately owned housing starts rose 10.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.502 million , up from February’s revised 1.356 million pace. Starts were also 10.8% higher than March 2025 levels. Single-family starts increased 9.7% to 1.032 million, while multifamily starts (buildings with five units or more) came in at 446k. On the permitting side, activity pulled back notably. Total building permits fell 10.8% to an annual rate of 1.372 million , down from February’s revised 1.538 million pace and 7.4% below year-ago levels. Single-family permits declined 3.8% to 895k, while multifamily authorizations dropped to 427k. In general, there's no point in reading too much into month-to-month volatility in this data series. What's important is that there's been a decent, supportive floor of construction activity seen in 2024-2025 and a general upward trend since October, 2025. Housing completions were essentially flat for the month, edging up 0.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.366 million . Despite the monthly stability, completions were 12.8% lower than the same time last year. Single-family completions fell 4.8% to 896k, while multifamily completions reached 452k.