Mortgage Services

If there's one housing market metric that paints a brighter picture than the rest, it's New Home Sales data from the Census Bureau. At 745,000, it eased slightly from an upwardly-revised annual rate of 758,000 , but was higher then the pre-revision reading of 737k, and 3.8% above December 2024’s 718,000. Fairly chunky revisions are par for the course with this data. The chart below shows pre-revision numbers (thus the slight uptick with the current release). For-sale inventory fell to 472,000 , down 2.7% from November and 3.5% lower than a year ago. At the current sales pace, that represents a 7.6-month supply , slightly below November’s 7.7 months and down from 8.2 months in December 2024. While supply remains elevated compared to the tightest periods of the past cycle, it continues to trend lower as sales hold firm. Prices moved higher on a monthly basis but showed mixed signals year-over-year. The median sales price rose to $414,400 (+4.2% MoM; -2.0% YoY), while the average price edged up to $532,600 (+0.5% MoM; +4.7% YoY). The divergence suggests a continued tilt toward higher-end transactions lifting the average. 2025 Total Sales: 679,000 (down 1.1% from 2024’s 686,000) Inventory (YoY): -3.5% Months’ Supply (YoY): -7.3% Prior Month Context: November sales were up 15.5% from October’s revised 656,000

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) slipped modestly in January, easily prolonging its stay in a narrow range near all-time lows. Pending home sales decreased 0.8% month over month and were down 0.4% compared with the same time last year. While affordability conditions have improved somewhat as mortgage rates trend closer to 6%, the improvement has failed to bolster contract activity. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that lower rates have expanded the pool of mortgage-eligible households, potentially adding hundreds of thousands of new buyers this year. However, he cautioned that without a meaningful increase in housing supply, additional demand could simply push prices higher and renew affordability pressure. The Midwest and West posted monthly gains, while the Northeast and South declined. On a yearly basis however, the picture changes, with the South and West slightly positive and the Northeast and Midwest down from a year ago—reinforcing the fact that sales activity remains uneven and regional. Regional Breakdown (Month-Over-Month) Northeast: −5.7% Midwest: +5.0% South: −4.5% West: +4.3% Regional YoY Change Northeast: −8.3% Midwest: −3.3% South: +4.0% West: +0.3%

What goes down must come up? Definitely not always the case, but true this time for residential construction numbers. The Census Bureau’s latest report showed a rebound in December, with both housing starts and building permits moving higher after softer readings in prior months. Privately owned housing starts rose 6.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.404 million , up from November’s revised 1.322 million pace. Despite the monthly gain, starts were 7.3% lower than December 2024 levels. Single-family starts increased 4.1% to 981k, while multifamily starts (buildings with five units or more) came in at 402k. On the permitting side, activity also strengthened. Total building permits climbed 4.3% to an annual rate of 1.448 million , though that figure remains 2.2% below year-ago levels. Single-family permits slipped 1.7% to 881k, while multifamily authorizations rose to 515k, driving the overall monthly increase. For the full year, an estimated 1.36 million housing units were started in 2025, down 0.6% from 2024. Permits totaled approximately 1.43 million , representing a 3.6% annual decline. The year-end data suggest a construction sector that regained some footing in December but remained modestly below last year’s pace overall.