Mortgage News

Housing Starts Slide in May, But Single-Family Holds Steady
Fri, 20 Jun 2025 18:08:00 GMT
The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a noticeable drop in overall housing starts in May, though single-family activity managed a small gain. Building permits also declined, continuing a trend of slight cooling in new construction momentum. As usual, the market focuses most on building permits and housing starts , with the latter representing the beginning of actual construction activity. Total starts fell nearly 10% to an annual pace of 1.256 million , down from 1.392 million in April. The decline was almost entirely due to a sharp drop in multifamily starts , which fell from 420k to 316k , the lowest level in over a year. In contrast, single-family starts edged up slightly to 924k from 920k . Building permits—a forward-looking indicator—also declined, dropping 2% from 1.422 million to 1.393 million . That included a 2.7% decline in single-family permits and a moderate slowdown in multifamily authorizations.

Mortgage Applications Slip Despite Lower Rates
Fri, 20 Jun 2025 17:32:00 GMT
Mortgage application activity declined modestly last week despite a drop in rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index fell 2.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 13, with both purchase and refinance activity posting week-over-week declines. “Even with lower average mortgage rates, applications declined over the week as ongoing economic uncertainty weighed on potential homebuyers’ purchase decisions,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Refinance applications were down 2% from the prior week but remain 25% higher than the same week last year. Purchase applications fell 3% on a seasonally adjusted basis but are still 14% above 2024 levels. These declines come after a brief rebound in early June and underscore the fragile sentiment in the housing market. The average 30-year fixed rate decreased to 6.84%, the lowest level since April, with modest declines across most other loan types as well. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.84% (−0.09) | Points: 0.66 (+0.02) 15yr Fixed: 6.14% (−0.02) | Points: 0.70 (+0.04) Jumbo 30yr: 6.81% (−0.12) | Points: 0.63 (no change) FHA: 6.57% (−0.03) | Points: 0.90 (+0.02) 5/1 ARM: 6.10% (−0.12) | Points: 0.57 (+0.24)

Homebuilder Sentiment Just a Bit Gloomier
Fri, 20 Jun 2025 17:23:00 GMT
Builder sentiment declined for the second straight month according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo's latest Housing Market Index (HMI). The headline index dropped two points to 32 in June, marking another step down toward the post-pandemic lows seen in 2023. All three components of the index moved lower: Current sales conditions fell two points to 35 Sales expectations for the next 6 months dipped to 40 Buyer traffic dropped to 21 Persistent affordability challenges—namely high mortgage rates and tariff-related material costs—remain major headwinds. As builders adapt, many are turning to price cuts and incentives to attract buyers. In fact, the share of builders reporting price reductions climbed to 37% in June, the highest since NAHB began tracking the data monthly in 2022. The average price cut held steady at 5%. Incentives were also widespread, with 62% of builders reporting some form of sales sweetener, up slightly from 61% in May. Despite the gloomy headline, it's worth noting that the market continues to be highly sensitive to any shift in rate expectations or material costs. As the broader economic picture evolves, builder sentiment may yet rebound—but for now, confidence remains historically low.

Purchase Demand Near 2 Year Highs; Refis Bounce Back
Fri, 13 Jun 2025 16:49:00 GMT
After a Memorial Day-induced lull, mortgage application activity rebounded sharply last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. Both purchase and refinance demand climbed to their highest levels in over a month, with the composite index rising 12.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis.  “Coming out of the Memorial Day holiday, mortgage applications increased to the highest level in over a month, driven by growth in both purchase and refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the economy, homebuyers seem to be taking advantage of loosening housing inventory in certain markets.” Refinance applications jumped 16% on the week and are now 28% higher than the same week last year. Purchase apps rose 10% week-over-week and are now running 20% above 2024 levels, marking a continuation of the strong year-over-year gains seen in recent reports. There are only 2 other weeks with higher purchase index readings going back to May 2023, and they were only barely higher. It should be noted that refi index, while not officially seasonally adjusted  does include a smoothing adjustment for holiday weeks.  Last week's data noted a Memorial Day adjustment, one that is not present in the current week's data.  Because certain holidays fall on a different day of the week, adjusting for them is an imperfect science. In all likelihood, if we could completely remove seasonality and holiday effects, last week's refi index would have been stronger and the present week would have shown a much smaller increase.

Application Demand Ebbs For Both Purchases and Refis
Fri, 06 Jun 2025 18:22:00 GMT
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey showed a pullback in mortgage applications, with rates dipping slightly after a three-week climb. The week’s numbers were also affected by the Memorial Day holiday, contributing to larger unadjusted declines. Still, the broader trend remains intact, with purchase demand continuing to outperform last year despite short-term rate volatility. “Most mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate declining to 6.92 percent and staying in the 6.8 to 7 percent range since April,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. He noted that purchase applications remain 18 percent higher than the same week last year, driven in part by a modest rise in FHA activity. Meanwhile, refinance activity fell again, and the average refi loan size dropped to the lowest level since July 2024, suggesting borrowers are still holding out for better rates. Seasonally adjusted refinance applications fell 4 percent from the previous week, while purchase apps also declined 4 percent. On an unadjusted basis, both categories dropped by 15 percent, though the year-over-year numbers remain solid: purchases are up 18 percent and refis are up 42 percent versus this time in 2024. Mortgage Rate Summary:

Pending Home Sales Slip, But the Broader Story Remains the Same
Fri, 30 May 2025 22:03:00 GMT
The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has spent more than two years stuck in a rut, held back by affordability constraints and the lingering impact of elevated mortgage rates. April's update didn’t do the market any favors, but it also didn’t tell us anything particularly new. Pending sales dropped by 6.3% in April, marking the sharpest monthly decline since mid-2022 . The index fell to 71.3 , its third-lowest level on record , and is now 2.5% lower than a year ago . That sounds like a big move—and it is, on paper—but zooming out, the broader trend remains one of stagnation. We’re still very much bouncing around at the bottom of a severely depressed range that’s held steady for the better part of a year. “With mortgage rates still hovering around 7%, home sales are stagnant as more homebuyers remain on the sidelines,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “There are job additions and income gains, but consumers are hesitant to move without meaningful rate relief. Increasing inventory and lowering mortgage rates will get more buyers and sellers back into the market.”

Purchase and Refi Demand Diverge Again
Fri, 30 May 2025 21:43:00 GMT
The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) weekly application survey continues to track closely with the more granular daily rate data from MND. Both showed mortgage rates climbing to new multi-month highs last week, and that upward momentum once again took a toll on refinance demand—even as purchase applications managed to grind higher. “Mortgage rates reached [their] highest level since January, following higher Treasury yields,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Additional market volatility has added to the increase, keeping the mortgage-Treasury spread wider than it was earlier this year. The 30-year fixed rate increased to 6.98 percent, its third consecutive weekly increase.” Kan noted that while refis dropped, purchases continue to outperform year-ago levels thanks in part to rising inventory. That aligns with the broader data: refinance applications fell 7 percent from the previous week, while purchase applications rose 3 percent. Compared to the same week one year ago, purchases are up 18 percent and refis are still running 37 percent ahead—though that year-over-year gap is narrowing. Mortgage Rate Summary From MBA's data: 30yr Fixed: 6.98% (+0.06) | Points: 0.67 (−0.02) Jumbo 30yr: 6.93% (−0.01) | Points: 0.69 (−0.03) FHA: 6.66% (+0.06) | Points: 0.95 (−0.01) 15yr Fixed: 6.23% (+0.02) | Points: 0.67 (−0.05) 5/1 ARM: 6.22% (+0.06) | Points: 0.46 (+0.10)

Home Prices Falling or Growing Less Quickly?
Fri, 30 May 2025 20:59:00 GMT
Both FHFA and Case Shiller released home price data this week with some mixed messages for the housing market. The first thing to remember about the major home price indices is that they run about 2 months behind--for the month of March in the present case. Another important consideration when looking at month-to-month movement is that the FHFA price index is seasonally adjusted whereas Case Shiller is not. The unadjusted Case Shiller data is easy to spot on the chart below due to its regular peaks and valleys at the same time of year, almost every year. The monthly data doesn't look too troubling.  Both metrics are mostly operating in positive territory and the FHFA index isn't any lower than it was last June.  Actually, the index itself is higher (since the chart measures month-over-month change). Rather, at -0.1% versus the previous month, FHFA's index didn't fall any faster than it did last June. Year over year data makes it easier to see longer-term trends.  It also means we don't have to worry about separating out seasonal adjustments. The chart above shows that the pace of home price appreciation has been declining for about a year, but that it remains in positive territory.  In other words, prices are still rising year over year, just not as quickly.  But that's not the full story. In addition to the unadjusted index, Case Shiller also has seasonally adjusted numbers and those show some more timely cause for concern.  Nationally, prices declined by 0.3%--the first negative reading since early 2023 and one of the biggest month over month shifts since 2022. The shift was fairly broad based across the 20 metro regions with only 6 recording price increases.

New Home Sales at 3 Year High, Maybe...
Fri, 23 May 2025 19:07:00 GMT
The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales for April today, and at face value, the news is good.  Economists expected an annual pace of 692k, but were instead treated to a surprisingly high 743k--just edging out 3 of the best months over the past 3 years. Unlike many of the other reports we cover, there's really no glaring counterpoint when we zoom out to a wider frame of reference.  Sure, sales were higher during the post-pandemic housing frenzy, but unlike existing homes and other housing data, New Home Sales are as good or better than their pre-pandemic levels.  So what's the catch? It's too soon to say.  In some sense, today's results are cheapened by the fact that last month's numbers were revised quite a bit lower.  Granted, big revisions are not-at-all uncommon for this data series, but if we're going to award titles like "best levels in 3 years," it's worth noting that this will not be the case if we see even a fraction of the same sort of downward revision next month. Geographically, the surprising surge was led by the South and Midwest.  The Western region held mostly steady and the Northeast lost ground.  Northeast 23k (down 4k from March) Midwest 84k (up 22k from March) South 478k (up 50k from March) West 158k (up 5k from March)

No Major Change For Existing Home Sales
Fri, 23 May 2025 18:17:00 GMT
Two months ago, existing home sales came in at the highest levels in a year according the the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Last month's report showed a fairly sharp decline to 5 month lows. The latest data, out this week is less sensational by comparison. Granted, we can now technically say that existing sales are at 6 month lows, but they really didn't change much from a month ago. As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart results in an entirely different impression of the home resale market. Then again, there is perhaps some solace in zooming out even more. “Home sales have been at 75% of normal or pre-pandemic activity for the past three years, even with seven million jobs added to the economy,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Pent-up housing demand continues to grow, though not realized. Any meaningful decline in mortgage rates will help release this demand.” Here's a regional breakdown of sales activity and prices from this report: Northeast Sales : 480,000 annual rate (↓2.0% from March) Median Price : $487,400 (↑6.3% YoY) Midwest Sales : 970,000 annual rate (↑2.1% from March) Median Price : $313,300 (↑3.6% YoY) South Sales : 1.81 million annual rate (unchanged from March) Median Price : $365,300 (↓0.1% YoY) West Sales : 740,000 annual rate (↓3.9% from March) Median Price : $628,500 (↓0.2% YoY)